No one seems to want to talk about it.   But it is almost here and you will be affected by it.  It is time to seriously start paying attention.

For Everyone:  There are reports from all directions that confirm what I keep saying:   Health Reform isn’t going away.   Many states are just waiting to enact Plan B.  Just this week Peter Lee, the Executive Director of the California Exchanges said:   “The shape and speed and nature of that effort may change a little.  We need to see, how do we adjust course after that decision.”   As a matter of fact, there is talk around Sacramento that the State just might go ahead and write their own individual mandate.   And why not?  Massachusetts did it and there isn’t any law on the books in California stopping them.    If the entire Federal Law gets thrown out in the severability issue, employers better not take a deep breath.   California would be the one State you could bet on to go after the employers.   After all, someone needs to fill up these insured pools with money so the claims can get paid.

For all Employers:  Employers who continue to ignore the reality of the situation are going to be unpleasantly surprised.   Even if the Individual Mandate is struck down by SCOTUS, the Employer Mandate will remain.  Large employers will have to make some decisions.  They may be inclined to pay to the $2,000/$3,000 fine per employee to un or underinsure, but they should be considering the entire picture when making those decisions.  Even small employers will be affected.  They are going to be inundated with employees looking for answers.   Who else are they going to ask?   Small employers not subject to the employer mandate will be analyzing which way to go with their benefits in the future.   They aren’t just going to lose all of their employees to the competition without some consideration.

Between the employees and HR, employers better have a benefit agent with some knowledge and history of being on top of benefit legislation knowledge.   Determining how to keep employees while rationally taking advantage of the individual and group subsidies will take some finessing.   Avoiding regulatory hurdles from the IRS, HHS, DOL and the new slew of agencies is going to be fun for all.

For the Average Consumer:  If the Individual Mandate fades away, rates are going to rise.   And they are going to rise like there is no tomorrow.   Does this sound like it’s going to end well?  When all is said and done PPACA is going to be the death knell of the current system.   A death that was premeditated by the U.S. Congress over time.  Forbes did a great article on the incidents leading up to the end desired result.  For the good of my profession and general public, I really hope the professional insurance agent survives in a manner in which they can remain in business.  I think the need for assistance is going to increase exponentially.

For Insurance Professionals:  Insurance agents making a living sells on rates and not taking this profession seriously are going to be in a world of hurt.   You can wish all you want, the California Exchange isn’t going away.  And remember, for an individual to get a subsidy, they have to purchase their insurance from the Exchange (If and how you can sell it remains to be set in stone).  Mr. Lee went on to say, “It’s misleading and not productive to just look at all of the ‘what-ifs,'” Lee said. “California will address the needs of Californians. And that includes the exchange.”    There is one “what-if” we don’t hear them talking about.   “What-If” national leadership changes and the Federal Funding to the States goes away.

Now, anyone with any institutional knowledge knows how well the State can compete with the private market in the absence of Federal Funding.   Mr. Lee can hope all he wants, unless they get the Federal Funding to support the premium subsidies…….well, game on.

Paula Wilson, RHU, REBC, Southern California Insurance Agent and Benefits Consultant